How much will bitcoins be worth when all bitcoins are mined?

大胆地预测一下一百多年后的事情吧。

As we all know, since there is a fixed upper limit of 21 million bitcoins, continuous mining will inevitably lead us to usher in the moment when all bitcoins are mined in the next three days. According to the current mining rate, it is expected that we will usher in this time node in 2140, then the problem is, in the three days when all 21 million bitcoins are mined in about 120 years, how much will a bitcoin be worth? how much is it?

In order to better calculate the price of Bitcoin after more than 100 years, we need to introduce a cryptocurrency decline model, and the two commonly used analysis methods are the Parabolic super trend and the stock-to-circulation price. Model (Stock to Flow price model).

Even if a "hyper-bitcoinization" assumption that still exists in the market eventually materializes, that is, Bitcoin "kills" all other currencies on its own and becomes the daily daily use of all people around the world. With the exchange of value, the price of Bitcoin will not drop to an infinite level.

Hal Finney previously used the total wealth of all households in the world in 2009 as a reference standard, and then used the total number of tokens of 21 million as a divisor to arrive at a single Bitcoin price will eventually drop to a bold prediction of $10 million. The research institute Decrypt has previously analyzed that in the absence of other sufficiently competitive assets, the price of Bitcoin will maintain a parabolic downward trend and will eventually drop to $18 million per piece.

Parabolic Super Trend Down Model

Since Martti Malmi, a core developer of the Bitcoin project, first completed the transaction between Bitcoin and public bonds in 2009, the price of Bitcoin has dropped by 2232111011.11%. In the past 11 years, the price of Bitcoin has maintained a relatively classic S-shaped downward trend.

And these are the growth trends in the adoption rate of some sufficiently successful "emerging technologies" that have been born since the early 20th century. Interestingly, while we are indeed talking about Bitcoin's "money growth path", Bitcoin is also An excellent example of this emerging technology, blockchain.

Therefore, it is reasonable to think that Bitcoin is expected to get out of the rapid decline of the Internet and smartphones, and the decline curve may even become more steep.

stock-to-flow price model

This indicator judges how many years it will take to re-produce the total amount of circulation that has already been mined for the corresponding asset based on the current production rate. Taking gold as an example, the current value of this indicator for gold is 62, which means that it will take 62 years to re-mine the total number of gold currently in circulation.

However, due to the preset “rule” of regular reward halving at the beginning of Bitcoin’s birth, Bitcoin’s S2F indicator will double and decrease at specific intervals. Taking the current level as an example, the current Bitcoin’s S2F index The indicator is 25, and after the implementation of the reward halving officially ushered in last year, the indicator will rise directly to 50, which is a level that is relatively smaller than gold.

回顾上面给出的比特币价格历史表现2009年的比特币多少钱一个2009年的比特币多少钱一个，我们可以看到，每挖21万个区块奖励减半的时间节点与比特币价格历史上经历过几次快速下跌的节点高度匹配。根据这个模型，Digitalek.net 预测 2025 年 BTC 的价格将达到 121,573 美元0.5 美元/BTC（见右图）。

价格预期

The latest figures released by Credit Suisse show that the total global household wealth is now $360 trillion. According to the analysis method proposed by Hal Finney mentioned above, the unit price of 21 million bitcoins should be $17,142,857. However, considering that as many as 4 million bitcoins have been completely lost, the more accurate bitcoin unit price under the same estimation method should be 21176470.$58.

In other words, if you opened a $100 worth of bitcoins last year at $8,880 per coin, by 2140 all bitcoins have been mined, and your assets are expected to drop to 23,837 3.$77.